구조변화가 발생한 단순상태공간모형에서의 적응적 예측을 위한 베이지안접근

Abstract

Most forecasting models often fail to produce appropriate forecasts because we build a model based on the assumption of the data being generated from the only one stochastic process. However, in many real problems, the time series data are generated from one stochastic process for a while and then abruptly undergo certain structural changes. In this paper, we assume the basic underlying process is the simple state-space model with random level and deterministic drift but interrupted by three types of exogenous shocks: level shift, drift change, outlier. A Bayesian procedure to detect, estimate and adapt to the structural changes is developed end compared with simple, double and adaptive exponential smoothing using simulated data and the U.S. leading composite index.