국내 아날로그와 디지털 이동전화 서비스 가입자수 예측을 위한 선택관점의 대체 확산 모형

Abstract

The telecommunications market is expanding rapidly and becoming more substitutive In this environment demand forecasting is very difficuit yet important for both practitioners and researchers. In this paper we adopt the modeling approach proposed by Jun and Park[6]. The basic premise is that demand patterns result from choice behavior where customers choose a product to maximize their utility We apply a choice-based substitutive diffusion model to the korean mobile telecommunication service market where digital service has completely replaced analog service. In comparison with Bass-type multigeneration models.our model provides superior fitting and forecasting performance . The choice-based model is useful in that it enables the description of such complicated environments and provides the flexlbility to include marketig mix variables such as price and advertising in the regression analysis.