DC Field | Value | Language |
---|---|---|
dc.contributor.author | Cho, Yun Yeong | ko |
dc.contributor.author | Jeong, Gi Ho | ko |
dc.contributor.author | Kim, Soung Hie | ko |
dc.date.accessioned | 2013-02-24T10:36:27Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2013-02-24T10:36:27Z | - |
dc.date.created | 2012-02-06 | - |
dc.date.created | 2012-02-06 | - |
dc.date.issued | 1991-11 | - |
dc.identifier.citation | Technological Forecasting and Social Change, v.40, no.3, pp.273 - 287 | - |
dc.identifier.issn | 0040-1625 | - |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10203/56511 | - |
dc.description.abstract | This paper suggests a technology forecasting approach based on a semi-Markov model, which appropriately describes the probabilistic nature of a sequential technology development process. This approach focuses primarily on the utilization of the information that has been skipped in conventional Delphi survey data. That is, through a simple statistic, the interrelationships among sequential technology developments can be extracted in a formal structure of a semi-Markov model from the original Delphi panel's estimates. A simulation technique is developed to forecast the development process by utilizing the information on such interrelationships. This technique provides a flexible and useful tool for R&D planners or project managers, especially in postanalysis of Delphi forecasting. To make good use of the approach, a computer-based interactive Delphi data analysis system (IDEAS) is implemented in IBM PC. © 1991. | - |
dc.language | English | - |
dc.publisher | Elsevier Inc. | - |
dc.title | A Delphi technology forecasting approach using a semi-Markov concept | - |
dc.type | Article | - |
dc.identifier.scopusid | 2-s2.0-0007687241 | - |
dc.type.rims | ART | - |
dc.citation.volume | 40 | - |
dc.citation.issue | 3 | - |
dc.citation.beginningpage | 273 | - |
dc.citation.endingpage | 287 | - |
dc.citation.publicationname | Technological Forecasting and Social Change | - |
dc.contributor.localauthor | Kim, Soung Hie | - |
dc.contributor.nonIdAuthor | Cho, Yun Yeong | - |
dc.contributor.nonIdAuthor | Jeong, Gi Ho | - |
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