Deveolpment of a demand forecasting model for new product and its applications to telecommunications market신상품 수요예측모형 개발 및 통신시장에의 응용

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Telecommunications service market is changing markedly. Many once monopolistic markets are becoming more competitive and the tendency is for these transformations to occur more quickly and frequently. To demonstrate and forecast the complicated demand patterns in a quickly changing telecommunications market, models must address the interrelationships among services and/or products. Much effort in recent years has been focused on developing aggregate diffusion models incorporating these interrelationships. One of the purposes of this study is to apply such a diffusion model to the telecommunications market. Consumers choose the particular service that maximizes their utility and efficiently uses their limited resources; they adopt new products whenever they can maximize their utility. Thus sales patterns of new products result from choices made by consumers over time. Therefore, by studying the choice behavior of consumers, we can understand the sales patterns of new products and develop sales forecasting models for those products. This study develops new product diffusion models in several different environments based on consumer choice behavior. Then we incorporate diffusion effects and choice effects in an integrated model. The choice literature generally ignores demand dynamics and previous diffusion models rarely include control variables. The proposed model is a combination of the two approaches. The basic premise of the proposed models is that sales patterns of new products are based on the choice behavior of consumers, where consumers choose a product to maximize their utility. Then we can derive the implied relationships among choice probabilities, diffusion processes, and marketing mix variables. The proposed model differs from previous diffusion models in that effects of exogenous variables such as price are incorporated into the diffusion processes through the choice behavior of the consumer. First, we develop a choice-based competitive diffusion ...
Advisors
Jun, Duk-Binresearcher전덕빈researcher
Description
한국과학기술원 : 경영공학전공,
Publisher
한국과학기술원
Issue Date
2000
Identifier
158293/325007 / 000955140
Language
eng
Description

학위논문(박사) - 한국과학기술원 : 경영공학전공, 2000.2, [ viii, 138 p. ]

Keywords

New product; Competition; Consumer choice; 신상품; 예측; 통신; 경쟁; 소비자선택; Forecasting; Telecommunications

URI
http://hdl.handle.net/10203/53336
Link
http://library.kaist.ac.kr/search/detail/view.do?bibCtrlNo=158293&flag=dissertation
Appears in Collection
KGSM-Theses_Ph.D.(박사논문)
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