Key factors in determining the coverage of GHGs in national climate commitment

Abstract

In line with the Paris Agreement, 195 countries have submitted their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), and a total of 131 countries are currently discussing, announcing, or adopting Net-Zero targets. However, previous studies have shown that the current level of NDCs is insufficient to limit the rise in global temperatures. Consequently, raising the level of climate targets is essential to meet the climate goal. However, the target declared in these commitments varies among countries. Therefore, the objective of this study is to identify key factors that influence the determination of coverage of Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) in national climate commitments. Specifically, this study examines the factors of climate vulnerability and political instability through regression analysis across 180 countries. The empirical results reveal a strong negative relationship between coverage of GHGs and vulnerability. In other words, countries with higher climate vulnerability and political instability are less likely to include full GHGs coverage in their national climate targets. This implies that reducing vulnerability can broaden the scope of GHGs covered in climate commitments.