Assessment of the role of BEV and FCEV in the decarbonization pathway of Korea’s road transportation

Abstract

This study developed a new integrated assessment model focused on road transportation to construct a scenario considering the availability of carbon-neutral policies and technologies in Korea. It analyzed the roles of BEVs and FCEVs in decarbonizing Korean road transport, acknowledging its significant contribution to GHG emissions. The study investigated the emission and energy consumption implications of adopting BEVs and FCEVs across different modes, the impact of banning ICEVs, and the co-evolution of transportation demand, electricity, and hydrogen sectors. The findings highlight that Korea's road transportation sector is already undergoing an energy transition through modal shifts, resulting in emission reductions even without policy interventions. While achieving net-zero carbon neutrality has limited impact on road transportation, a combination of ICEV sales bans and carbon neutrality policies is expected to effectively achieve nearly zero GHG emissions by 2050. Furthermore, the implementation of carbon neutrality policies drives a rapid surge in demand for EVs and FCEVs in freight transport, improves the competitiveness of low-energy intensity heavy trucks, and facilitates the replacement of light and medium trucks. The study's results provide valuable quantitative guidance for policy and technology development, outlining the necessary path of modal shifts and energy transitions required to achieve net-zero carbon neutrality in Korean road transport.