Identifying the causal relationship between party loyalty and nomination depending on party status

Abstract

When good cheers are lacking, our friends will be packing. Depending on the situation, good cheers may be welcomed or unpleasant. The old saying could be applicable when interpreting the same behavior in politics. Depending on the party status to which legislators belong, party loyalty of individuals can be viewed either positive or negative. In this paper, we examine how the loyal action can be judged by parties where they are in the different status, the ruling or opposition party. To identify how loyal individuals are, relationship-based party loyalty is suggested, which reflect the characteristics that intensify polarization applying stochastic process. We revealed that lawmakers with low loyalty are rewarded in the nomination if he or she is in the ruling party, and in the case of the opposition party, high loyalty brings compensation of avoiding cut-off. It informs that conflicting groups take different position on actions which encourage polarization, and therefore, the degree of polarization could be bounded.