(An) analysis of driving factors of CO2 emissions by final energy consumption in Africa

Abstract

Africa now boasts some of the world’s fastest-growing economies and, with increases in energy consumption across the continent, CO2 emissions are also on the rise. Since traditional biomass remains the leading source of energy consumption on the continent, it is particularly important to understand the relationship between total final energy consumption, including biofuels and waste, and total CO2 emissions, in order to improve Africa’s energy ecosystem. However, few studies have tackled this subject. To identify the main drivers of total CO2 emissions in Africa, we analyzed country-level panel data on total CO2 emissions and sectoral total final energy consumption by energy source for 38 African countries from 1990 to 2019. Based on a fixed-effects panel regression model, this study finds that the residential sector is the largest driver of total CO2 emissions in biofuel and waste consumption, and that the transport and industrial sectors are the main drivers of total CO2 emissions in fossil fuel consumption. In terms of electricity consumption, the commercial and public service sector is the primary driver of total CO2 emissions. Though biofuels and waste remain the largest energy sources, the relative use of fossil fuels increased over the period studied. In addition, low-income and Sub-Saharan African countries’ contributions to total CO2 emissions from biofuels and waste are relatively large in the residential sector. Our results highlight the point that in order for African countries to develop low-carbon economies for coping with climate change, these countries should shift from traditional biomass energy to clean and modern alternative biomass energy and renewable energy rather than fossil fuels.