Arctic-associated increased fluctuations of midlatitude winter temperature in the 1.5 degrees and 2.0 degrees warmer world

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In recent decades, the interior regions of Eurasia and North America have experienced several unprecedentedly cold winters despite the global surface air temperature increases. One possible explanation of these increasing extreme cold winters comes from the so-called Warm Arctic Cold Continent (WACC) pattern, reflecting the effects of the amplified Arctic warming in driving the circulation change over surrounding continents. This study analyzed reanalysis data and model experiments forced by different levels of anthropogenic forcing. It is found that WACC exists on synoptic scales in observations, model's historical and even future runs. In the future, the analysis suggests a continued presence of WACC but with a slightly weakened cold extreme due to the overall warming. Warm Arctic events under the warmer climate will be associated with not only a colder continent in East Asia but also a warmer continent, depending on the teleconnection process that is also complicated by the warmer Arctic. Such an increasingly association suggests a reduction in potential predictability of the midlatitude winter anomalies.
Publisher
NATURE PORTFOLIO
Issue Date
2023-03
Language
English
Article Type
Article
Citation

NPJ CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE, v.6, no.1

ISSN
2397-3722
DOI
10.1038/s41612-023-00345-y
URI
http://hdl.handle.net/10203/306367
Appears in Collection
RIMS Journal Papers
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