Drivers and Ideal Types towards Energy Transition: Anticipating the Futures Scenarios of OECD Countries

Abstract

This study aims to identify the ideal types of energy transition of the thirty-five Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries and to explore their implications using the fuzzy-set ideal type analysis. It then anticipates the futures scenarios of OECD member countries towards energy transition by placing the ideal type results. In particular, looking at the possibility of the futures towards energy transition, this study attempts to set up the comprehensive measurement framework of energy transition embracing the three key drivers (energy system (E), energy citizenship (S), and digital technology (T)). As a result, the eight OECD countries, including Denmark (fuzzy score 0.889), UK (0.800), and Norway (0.788) belonging to Type 1 (E*S*T) with the all high features of three key drivers, are expected to have Outlier (super-potent) Futures' of energy transition. The twelve countries of Type 2 (E*S*t), 3 (E*s*T), and 5 (e*S*T) with two high features of three ones will belong to the Best (reformative) Futures'. The five countries of Type 4 (E*s*t), 6 (e*S*t), and 7 (e*s*T) with one high feature among three ones will be located in Business-As-Usual Futures'. Finally, the ten countries, including Hungary (fuzzy score 0.881), Greece (0.716), Israel (0.679) belonging to Type 8 (e*s*t) with all three low features, are expected to have Worst (declined) Futures' of energy transition.