설문자료를 이용한 국내 PCS 재판매 서비스 수요예측

Abstract

In this paper, we place the focus on suggesting a method of forecasting demand for PCS resale service with survey data in Korea. It is important for the service provider to forecast the diffusion process when designing marketing strategies and analyzing the costs and benefits. For the reason, we conduct a survey of three groups composed of non-subscribers, cellular subscribers, and PCS subscribers in order to forecast the demand according to severey possible scenarios and business strategies. We consider the survey item that is measured by multiple point scales in response to a question if he would subscribe to the mobile telephone service in the future. We propose a method to forecast the size of market potential by classifying each individual into the two extreme groups, that is, yes or no. Then, by integrating survey data and historical data, we forecast the demand for PCS resale service that varies according to scenarios and strategies. From the results, we can find serveral implications for the provider of PCS resale service.