A Procedure for Statistical Thermal Margin Analysis Using Response Surface Method and Monte Carlo Technique

Abstract

A statistical procedure, which uses response surface method and Monte Carlo simulation technique, is proposed for analyzing the thermal margin of light water reactor core. The statistical thermal margin analysis method performs the best-estimate; thermal margin evaluation by the probabilistic treatment of uncertainties of input parameters. This methodology is applied to KNU-1 core thermal margin analysis under the steady state nominal operating condition. Also discussed are the comparisons with conventional deterministic method and Improved Thermal Design Procedure of Westinghouse. It is deduced from this study that the response surface method is useful for performing the statistical thermal margin analysis and that thermal margin improvement is assured through this procedure.