Nuclear as the sixth-fuel diversification policy for the electricity generation program in Malaysia : a way forward (using the message case study) = 말레이시아 전력 생산을 위한 다양한 정책 중 여섯번째 자원인 원자력의 MESSAGE를 이용한 추진방향 연구a way forward (using the message case study)
A study of the long-term electricity demand using multiple technologies and anticipated $CO_2$ emissions for the Malaysia power sector was conducted for a period between 2008 and 2030. The IAEA’s user-friendly energy planning tool, MESSAGE-V, was employed in this study due to its flexibility in establishing a model for a power system in the quest for optimum total installed capacity and generation mix expansion path consonant with user-defined constraints in the intermediate to long-term period. This paper demonstrates the necessity for Malaysia to gazette nuclear as its newly proposed Sixth-Fuel Diversification Policy, which is a replacement for the current Five-Fuel Diversification Policy, as part of the national strategic approach for ensuring fuel supply security, sustainability and availability. Using the model developed in this study, many possible future scenarios ranging from business-as-usual or base―case to incorporation of nuclear power plants under many assumptions, bounds and restrictions were simulated, analyzed and compared. The forecasted total installed capacity, generation mix, objective function (total discounted energy system cost) and projected $CO_2$ emissions were computed, plotted, tabled and discussed for each scenario. It was discovered that the nuclear generating option was indeed attractive and played active role in the MESSAGE optimization process for most of the scenarios, excluding scenarios in which nuclear power was intentionally made absent . Based on the findings of this study and some other pertinent points, the importance of incorporated nuclear energy as a strategic and essential part of Malaysia’s future energy policy was discussed with emphasis on the problems faced by the existing fuels in meeting the requirement of a sustainable long term energy security as well as compliance with anticipated future environmental obligations for Malaysia’s post Kyoto Protocol 2012 regime.