Stochastic moments analysis of radionuclide migration in porous media

Abstract

The stochastic moments analysis technique is developed to investigate radionuclide migration in geologic porous media from the nuclear waste repository. The mechanisms for radionuclide transport are assumed to be advection in the micropore, radioactive decay of the species, and sorption on the pore wall. Two covariance functions of groundwater velocity, retardation factor, and concentration are derived to incorporate the geologic parameter uncertainty in porous media of small medium dispersivity. The parametric studies show that the correlation length of groundwater velocity has significant influence on the migration behavior of radionuclide. Macrodispersivity is dominantly affected by the fluctuation of groundwater velocity, while the fluctuation of retardation factor has a considerable effect on the retarded stochastic velocity. The upper estimated concentration evaluated from this stochastic moments analysis can be used as a practical conservative value for the performance assessment of a nuclear waste repository.