Power generation cost comparison of nuclear and coal in view of future korean environmental regulations : sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for year 2001 = 장차 한국의 환경 규제 여건에 따른 원자력과 석탄화력의 발전 단가 비교 : 2001 년도 민감도 및 불확실도 분석sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for year 2001
To analyze the impact of air pollution control on electricity generation cost, a computer program was developed. POGEN calculates levelized discounted power Generation cost including additional air Pollution control cost for coal power plant. Hot-side electrostatic precipitator (ESP) was used to control total suspended particulates (TSP). We flue gas desulphurization (FGD) with forced oxidation and gypsum landfill disposal system was adopted to control $SO_x$ and subsequent waste. Pollution subprogram calculates total capital and variable costs using governing equations for flue gas control. The costs are used as additional input for levelized discounted powr Generation cost subprogram. Pollution output for FGD direct cost was verified using published cost data of well experienced industrialized countries. The power generation costs for the year 2001 were estimated by POGEN for three ddifferent regulatory scenarios imposed on coal power plant, and by levelized discounted power Generation cost subprogram for nuclear power. Because of uncertainty expected in input variables for future plants, sensitivity and uncertainty analysis were made to check the importance and uncertainty propagation of the input variables using Latin Hypercube Sampling and Multiple Least Square method. Most sensitive parameter for levelized discounted power generation cost is discount rate for both nuclear and coal. The control cost for desulphurization of flue gas alone reaches additional 9-11 mills/kWh with standard deviation less than 1.3 mills/kWh. This cost will be nearly 20\% of power generation cost and 40\% of one GW capacity coal power plant investment cost. With 90\% confidence, the generation cost of nuclear power plant will be 32.6-51.9 mills/kWh, and for the coal power plant it will be 45.5-60.5 mills/kWh. Nuclear is favorable with 95\% confidence under stringent future regulatory requirements in Korea.