(A) study on the social risk-judgment for nuclear energy : development of the risk-judgment model

Abstract

Despite the fact that nuclear power has become a major energy source in Korea, the public attitude toward it shows a typical NIMBY (Not In My Back Yard) phenomenon. In order for designing an effective policy, it is essential to obtain reliable knowledge about how the public perceive and judge the risks and benefits of nuclear energy. A public risk judgment model was developed through both constructing the perception variables by Latent Class Analysis and quantifying the relationship between acceptance and perception variables by Logistic Regression. Two independent sets of nation-wide survey data provided the parameter estimates and the validity of the model. As a result, the perception level of risks and benefits could be quantified and National Acceptance and Local Acceptance could be modeled by the perception variables. While lay people judge the risks and benefits through the process of perception, experts have relevant knowledge and information about nuclear energy and depend on the scientific facts or inferences in judgment process. Thus their opinion and consensus should be examined and taken into account during policy formulation process. For the purpose of eliciting expert``s opinion, the web-based on-line survey system (eBOSS) was developed. The Web provides an easy graphical user interface that enables users to complete the survey at their own convenience and answer questions in a low-overhead fashion. Using the survey system, experts`` views were tallied, analyzed and compared with the public. While there were differences in the perception of risks as well as benefits between the public and expert, similar preferences on alternative policies appeared. This study is one of the first attempts to statistically examine the nexus between the perception and the acceptance of nuclear energy. The methodologies may give the basis for investigating the structure of the public attitude on new technologies and the results can be useful to design public informat...