Classification, relationships and forecasting models for telecommunication services

Abstract

In forecasting future market size for telecommunication services, it is customary to analyze individually the diffusion processes of the services that make up the whole market and aggregate them. Recently, however, many existing telecommunication services have diversified and new services have arisen in an effort to satisfy customer needs. Thus, an aggregated forecast should consider the various relationships among telecommunication services, such as competitiveness and complementariness in view of the customer's desires for telecommunication. In this paper, a framework for classifying telecommunication services is proposed and independent, competitive and complementary relationships are defined according to customer needs, customer premise equipment, cost and network. Forecasting models based on such relationships are applied to telecommunication services in Korea. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd.