(An) approach to probabilistic effort estimation for military avionics software maintenance

Abstract

The importance of maintenance project management increase rapidly in the military avionics industry and the size and complexity of software increase rapidly along with frequent change on software. In addition, the software maintenance project is required to predict its maintenance effort for risk management. Although few previous studies related to the maintenance effort estimation were proposed, they had two drawbacks:(1) the difficulty in measuring some input parameters at the early stage, (2) the lack of support for ``what-if`` analysis by exploring the impact of changes among input parameters for more realistic estimation. In this study, we suggest the probabilistic effort estimation model for military avionics software maintenance projects. We elicited the four aspects to the maintenance effort including structural characteristics for early estimation, developed probabilistic maintenance effort estimation model based on Bayesian network with a data set of 76 military avionics software maintenance projects in the Republic Of Korea Air Force (ROKAF).