Intensification of arctic climate variability due to global warming and its impact on long-term changes in natural gas prices

Abstract

This study aimed to explore the implications for economies that seek to utilize natural gas as a 'bridge fuel' for reducing greenhouse gas emissions by understanding the mechanism through which global warming affects natural gas prices. A model was developed using multiple regression analysis, considering factors such as temperature and natural gas inventories that influence natural gas prices. Additionally, temperature data under four different SSP scenarios from CESM2 were used to investigate the potential impact of future global warming on natural gas price changes. Through this research, it was discovered that there is a possibility that rising temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere due to global warming could lead to winter decreases in natural gas prices. It was also found that as global warming intensifies, price volatility due to temperature fluctuations could expand. However, despite limitations such as a limited dataset and uncertain connections between global warming and severe winter cold, this study suggests that understanding this mechanism could be beneficial for informing energy strategies, especially if the relationship between global warming and winter conditions becomes clearer in the future.