Changes in the Workforce by Generative AI

Abstract

Since the public release of ChatGPT 3.5, there has been a significant surge in public and corporate interest in mega-scale, generative AI technologies. The pace of technological advancement in this field is also accelerating rapidly. In this context, it becomes crucial to examine the potential emergence of a singularity caused by Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) that surpasses human intelligence, and to explore how such rapid technological evolution and possibilities might transform the labor environment.

This thesis presents a comprehensive exploration of the potential impacts of Artificial Intelligence (AI) on labor markets and society. Utilizing a scenario planning approach, the study examines various trajectories of AI development and their implications, ranging from incremental changes to transformative shifts in workforce and societal structures.

The research begins by delving into the current state of AI technologies, discussing their evolution, capabilities, and integration into different sectors. It then transitions to a detailed analysis of four distinct future scenarios: AI-Enhanced Economic Evolution, AI-Induced Disruption, Regulated AI Integration, and AGI-Led Societal Transformation. Each scenario is meticulously crafted to reflect unique aspects of potential AI development, considering factors like technological advancements, labor market dynamics, economic impacts, and societal responses.

The study offers targeted policy recommendations for each scenario, aiming to provide stakeholders with strategic insights for navigating the challenges and opportunities presented by AI. These recommendations focus on workforce development, ethical AI governance, economic diversification, and societal resilience.

The research highlights the complex and multifaceted nature of AI's impact, emphasizing the need for proactive, flexible, and informed policy-making. It acknowledges the limitations inherent in scenario-based forecasting and suggests areas for future research to further refine our understanding of AI's role in shaping the future of labor and society.

This thesis contributes to the broader discourse on AI and its societal implications, providing a nuanced perspective that balances the potential benefits and risks of AI development. It serves as a foundational resource for policymakers, business leaders, and academics, guiding them through the complexities of a rapidly evolving technological landscape.