Decomposition analysis of greenhouse gas emissions by indirect household electricity consumption in 16 Korean cities and provinces

Abstract

Household electricity consumption can be divided into direct and indirect consumption. Direct consumption is attributed to home-based heating, cooling, and appliance usage. On the other hand, indirect consumption is tied to household economic activities such as the purchasing of goods and services. Household indirect electricity consumption is evaluated as larger than direct electricity consumption and is expected to increase as household consumption levels increase. However, most previous domestic studies have primarily focused on direct household electricity consumption and associated emissions. The study expanded its scope by scrutinizing electricity-based indirect greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from household economic activity in 16 cities and provinces in Korea from 2005 to 2015. Structural decomposition analysis was used to identify key drivers in the changes in household consumption-driven GHG emissions. Moreover, a comparison was drawn between the growth rates of indirect GHG emissions and personal income in each region to appraise potential decoupling. The results showed that while indirect GHG emissions have risen nationwide, the changes vary across sectors and regions. As living standards improved during the study period, the effect of increased residential consumption levels played a dominant role in increasing indirect GHG emissions. Interestingly, advancements in carbon intensity at the national level offset this growth to some extent. However, Chungnam, which implemented the country’s largest number of thermal power plants, failed to offset these indirect GHG emissions increment. Despite the reduction in household sizes in Korea contributing to a decrease in per-household GHG emissions, the overall increase in the number of households resulted in a net increase in total emissions. This result confirms that the trend toward shrinking household sizes contributes to increased GHG emissions. The decoupling analysis reveals that most regions are transitioning towards a decoupling phenomenon. However, certain regions, such as Chungbuk, Jeonnam, Gyeongbuk, and Ulsan, exhibited an ‘Expansive Negative Decoupling’ state from 2010 to 2015. This phenomenon indicates that the rate of increase in indirect GHG emissions surpassed the growth rate of personal income, largely due to the effect of increased residential consumption levels. Consequently, prioritizing improvements in carbon intensity efficiency becomes crucial in these areas. Moreover, curbing residential consumption activity by enhancing the durability of produced goods could also be an effective strategy for reducing the impact of residential consumption on indirect GHG emissions.