Predicting the process of porosity-based ductile damage in polycrystalline metallic materials is an essential practical topic. Ductile damage and its precursors are represented by extreme values in stress and material state quantities, the spatial probability density function (PDF) of which are highly non-Gaussian with strong fat tails. Traditional deterministic forecasts utilizing sophisticated continuum-based physical models generally lack in representing the statistics of structural evolution during material deformation. Computational tools which do represent complex structural evolution are typically expensive. The inevitable model error and the lack of uncertainty quantification may also induce significant forecast biases, especially in predicting the extreme events associated with ductile damage. In this paper, a data-driven statistical reduced-order modeling framework is developed to provide a probabilistic forecast of the deformation process of a polycrystal aggregate leading to porosity-based ductile damage with uncertainty quantification. The framework starts with computing the time evolution of the leading few moments of specific state variables from the spatiotemporal solution of full -field polycrystal simulations. Then a sparse model identification algorithm based on causation entropy, including essential physical constraints, is utilized to discover the governing equations of these moments. An approximate solution of the time evolution of the PDF is obtained from the predicted moments exploiting the maximum entropy principle. Numerical experiments based on polycrystal realizations of a representative body-centered cubic (BCC) tantalum illustrate a skillful reduced-order model in characterizing the time evolution of the non-Gaussian PDF of the von Mises stress and quantifying the probability of extreme events. The learning process also reveals that the mean stress is not simply an additive forcing to drive the higher-order moments and extreme events. Instead, it interacts with the latter in a strongly nonlinear and multiplicative fashion. In addition, the calibrated moment equations provide a reasonably accurate forecast when applied to the realizations outside the training data set, indicating the robustness of the model and the skill for extrapolation. Finally, an information-based measurement is employed to quantitatively justify that the leading four moments are sufficient to characterize the crucial highly non-Gaussian features throughout the entire deformation history considered.