The Prospects of Small-Modular Reactors in Emerging Nuclear Energy Countries

Abstract

Since 1953, when the United States implemented the Atoms for Peace initiative, at least 60 countries have expressed their interest in having nuclear power as a means of producing electricity. However, as of 2021 only 32 countries have operating nuclear power plants. The historical data indicates that the drivers for countries to incorporate nuclear plants in their energy production have been quite diverse and include (1) lack of indigenous fossil resources, requiring the development of an alternate viable strategy for energy security; (2) need for high baseload power capable of meeting the rapid rise in energy demand; (3) desire to achieve the national prestige associated with being a technically advanced country; and (4) nuclear power’s strategic potential for dual use for power generation and military purposes. However, even in the presence of these drivers, there are numerous other factors contributing to the successful or failed deployment of nuclear power in a country. One such factor is financial constraints. A smaller-scale of nuclear plant, the small-modular reactor (SMR), has been suggested as an option for nuclear power development because it requires a lower capital commitment. An SMR has the advantage of carbon free emissions. In addition to providing stable baseload generation, it can operate flexibly to compensate for the intermittency of renewables. This study aims to assess the feasibility of SMR development in the 30 countries that expressed interest in nuclear power but currently do not have operating nuclear power plants. The assessment was done by gathering country specific information on the eighteen indicators listed in the IAEA’s– “Deployment Indicators for Small Modular Reactors.” The data were then evaluated using the United States Department of Commerce’s categorization methodology. This study added five additional indicators to build a more comprehensive picture of each country’s national capabilities. The added indicators were government effectiveness, political stability index, experience with nuclear technology, bilateral nuclear cooperation, and availability of the necessary scientists and engineers. The assessment of these emerging nuclear countries, in terms of their readiness will be useful to guide the process of global nuclear power development in the future through international cooperation.