Study on alternative futures of north Korea economy

Abstract

North Korea has long been a headache for the international communities, despite of recent summit meetings between President Trump and Chairman Kim Jong-un in 2018 and 2019. The purpose of this study is to present the alternative futures of North Korea economy and to suggest future strategies for achieving them. First, using the Four Futures scenario of Manoa School, I have presented four alternative futures are nicknamed as “Next Vietnam”, “Fall of hermit kingdom” “Eco-socialist economy”, and “Role model for the Fourth Industrial development.” Second, based on the situation in which North Korea actively adopts innovative ICT, I have presented five likely future scenarios which are “Smart and Strong Self-sustaining Socialist State”, “Pyongyang Spring”, “Mosquito-net”, “Ubiquitous state” and “1984.” And third, after analyzing North Korea's economic plans and development strategies in detail from 1950s to 2010s, I have identified that North Korea lacked of future foresight exercise and future strategy despite of numerous socialist economic visions and slogans. In developing the futures strategies for North Korea, we need to prepare future strategies that reflect the policy stances of neighboring countries such as the United States, China, and South Korea and global norms like the UN SDG, since the North Korean issue is a complex issue in which the interests of various countries are sharply varied and inter-connected.