Dual-mode risk assessment framework for space object collision

Abstract

Satellites have been serving scientists with valuable data about our planet Earth. They provide data starting from navigation, weather forecasting, climate & environmental monitoring, and even business and finances. However, with developments in satellites and launch vehicle systems, the number of satellites launching into orbit have skyrocketed, and with it came the problem of collision between two satellites. To stop the Kessler syndrome, information about the possible future collisions and changes in the satellite development must be known prior to their occurrence [1]. To mitigate these issues, we propose a dual-mode framework for generating microscopic and macroscopic collision risk information. Microscopic collision risk information includes a full assessment of conjunction analysis for all observable satellites of interest [2]. Macroscopic collision risk analysis provides information about the number of avoidance maneuvers and possibilities of collision within the time of interest with the knowledge of the spatial density of space with satellites [3]. A case study demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed dual-mode framework.