완전적립식 국민연금 재정 달성 가능성 분석

Abstract

This paper studies the feasibilty of fuly funded scheme for National Pension Service. Taking 1) contributionrate, 2) pension fund performance, and 3) government subsidy as control variables, we aply linear program- ming techniques to identify optimal policy design to achieve long term financial goals of National PensionService. The results are rather frightening. Had the pension policy ben revised in 2015, the fuly funded schemecan be achieved with a marginal increase of the contribution rate. However, in 2020, a very high contributionrate along with a sharp increase of investment risks and large amount of government subsidies are required toachieve the goals. If the pension reform is delayed by 2025, achieving fuly funded scheme becomes infeasible.