Urban land use changes by autonomous vehicles

Abstract

This study simulates land use changes at a point in time when autonomous are widespread. If autonomous vehicles become the main means of transportation in the future, people can pass their time on the road by reading, eating, and interacting with friends. People will no longer have the burden of having to drive, and this will change people’s perception of travel time. In addition, this will have an impact on people’s choice of residence. Previous studies have already presented ideas that if autonomous vehicles were commonplace, the city would be suburbanized. However, previous studies have not presented specific models or figures about such future cities. Therefore, this study seeks to suggest specific models of land use change when autonomous vehicles are dominant through the cellular automata method. For land uses, residential, commercial, industrial, agricultural, social, public, and green areas are considered, and accessibility, land price, accessibility to green spaces, and neighborhood effects are selected as land use change factors. Simulations based on the scenarios presented in the study by Heinrichs (2016) show two representative results. First, most of agricultural areas will decrease, and residential and commercial areas in Gyeonggi province will expand. Second, most land usage will change to residential land use, and only the central commercial area in Seoul will remain. This result can serve as a guideline for urban design when autonomous vehicles become the main means of transportation. Furthermore, it could be helpful for the development of regulations and policy enforcement around autonomous vehicles.