Risk-based design and economic evaluation considering quantitative assessment of equipment failures and accidental risks = 장비고장 및 사고위험의 정량적 평가를 반영한 위험도 기반 설계와 경제성 평가 방법에 대한 연구

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This study presented risk-based design and economic evaluation methodologies considering quantitative assessment of equipment failures and accident risks. First, this study proposed a new methodology of combining process simulation and Monte Carlo simulation (MCS), which provided risk-based information for determination of design parameter related to operation conditions. The realistic operation scenarios of a system including equipment failure and subsequent repair obtained by MCS were used to run a process simulation, which estimated an accidental risk expressed by exceedance curve of operation conditions. The combined method was applied to determine design vapor pressure of fuel storage tanks on LNG-fueled ships, and presented the exceedance curve of the pressure to help ensure system safety effectively in the early design stage. Second, this study proposed a methodology of exergy-based economic evaluation incorporating unavailability and safety investment cost to comparatively evaluate design alternatives while considering efficiency, economics and safety together. Exergy-based economic analysis was employed to synthetically evaluate the design factors within the same framework. The unavailability cost was estimated as the cost resulted from the equipment failure quantitatively evaluated by MCS. The safety investment cost was defined as the cost required to ensure the safety of the design by reducing accident risks to a level that is ‘as low as reasonably practicable’ (ALARP), which presents a rational approach to converting the risks associated with design alternatives into monetary values for economic analysis. Comparative studies were performed for design alternatives to manage boil-off gas (BOG) with the recovery of liquefied natural gas (LNG) cold energy in a LNG floating storage and regasification unit (FSRU). Overall, this study dedicated to the development of the integrated methodologies to achieve system safety effectively with respect to equipment failure, and to provide a rational basis for selecting a design alternative while simultaneously considering efficiency, economics and safety together.
Chang, Daejunresearcher장대준researcher
한국과학기술원 :기계공학과,
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학위논문(박사) - 한국과학기술원 : 기계공학과, 2018.8,[vi, 90 p. :]


Risk-based design▼aavailability▼aquantitative risk assessment▼asafety investment cost▼aeconomic evaluation; 위험도 기반 설계▼a가용도▼a정량적 위험도 분석▼a안전투자비용▼a경제성 평가

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