Achieving new insights into combat engagement analysis via simulation-based sequential experimentation

Abstract

This paper discusses practical simulation analysis for a military study using sequential experimentation. The basic philosophy for experiments is that an engagement scenario should be sequentially evolved with changes in operational concepts and their tactics during simulation. To this end, we first propose a process for simulation-based sequential experimentation, which is classified into 1) general phases, i.e., designing, modeling and simulation, and analyzing; and 2) cycles to maximize the flexibility of experimental factors as well as the scenario itself. Next, we use the proposed simulation experimentation to obtain new insights into a combat engagement—naval underwater warfare. The scenarios for the warfare cover various types of combat entities, e.g., submarines, warships, torpedoes, and decoys. In this simulation, the key point is how to evolve the scenarios sequentially by deploying false targets, or decoys, efficiently from a defender side and distinguishing false targets accurately to hit a real target from an attacker side. With extensive experiments, the paper shows various empirical investigation and lessons learned, which provides a guide to those who desire to analyze combat effectiveness and make decisions about future warfare. © 2018 Military Operations Research Society. All rights reserved.