Public opinion by a poll process: model study and Bayesian view

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We study the formation of public opinion in a poll process where the current, score is open to the public. The voters are assumed to vote probabilistically for or against their own preference considering the group opinion collected lip to then in the score. The poll-score probability is found to follow the beta distribution in the large polls limit. We demonstrate that various poll results, even those contradictory to the population preference, are possible with non-zero probability density and that such deviations are readily triggered by initial bias. It is mentioned that our poll model can be understood in the Bayesian viewpoint.
Publisher
IOP PUBLISHING LTD
Issue Date
2018-05
Language
English
Article Type
Article
Keywords

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Citation

JOURNAL OF STATISTICAL MECHANICS-THEORY AND EXPERIMENT

ISSN
1742-5468
DOI
10.1088/1742-5468/aabbc5
URI
http://hdl.handle.net/10203/242414
Appears in Collection
NT-Journal Papers(저널논문)
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