Statistical model for forecasting uranium prices to estimate the nuclear fuel cycle cost

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dc.contributor.authorKim, Sungkiko
dc.contributor.authorKo, Wonilko
dc.contributor.authorNam, Hyoonko
dc.contributor.authorKim, Chulminko
dc.contributor.authorChung, Yanghonko
dc.contributor.authorBang, Sungsigko
dc.date.accessioned2017-10-23T02:01:04Z-
dc.date.available2017-10-23T02:01:04Z-
dc.date.created2017-09-08-
dc.date.created2017-09-08-
dc.date.issued2017-08-
dc.identifier.citationNUCLEAR ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY, v.49, no.5, pp.1063 - 1070-
dc.identifier.issn1738-5733-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10203/226464-
dc.description.abstractThis paper presents a method for forecasting future uranium prices that is used as input data to calculatethe uranium cost, which is a rational key cost driver of the nuclear fuel cycle cost. In other words, thestatistical autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and existing engineering costestimation method, the so-called escalation rate model, were subjected to a comparative analysis. Whenthe uranium price was forecasted in 2015, the margin of error of the ARIMA model forecasting wascalculated and found to be 5.4%, whereas the escalation rate model was found to have a margin of errorof 7.32%. Thus, it was verified that the ARIMA model is more suitable than the escalation rate model atdecreasing uncertainty in nuclear fuel cycle cost calculation.-
dc.languageEnglish-
dc.publisherKOREAN NUCLEAR SOC-
dc.subjectSHALE GAS-
dc.subjectFUTURE-
dc.subjectARIMA-
dc.subjectCHINA-
dc.titleStatistical model for forecasting uranium prices to estimate the nuclear fuel cycle cost-
dc.typeArticle-
dc.identifier.wosid000410895900018-
dc.identifier.scopusid2-s2.0-85021881900-
dc.type.rimsART-
dc.citation.volume49-
dc.citation.issue5-
dc.citation.beginningpage1063-
dc.citation.endingpage1070-
dc.citation.publicationnameNUCLEAR ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY-
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.net.2017.05.007-
dc.identifier.kciidART002249747-
dc.contributor.localauthorChung, Yanghon-
dc.contributor.nonIdAuthorKim, Sungki-
dc.contributor.nonIdAuthorKo, Wonil-
dc.contributor.nonIdAuthorNam, Hyoon-
dc.contributor.nonIdAuthorKim, Chulmin-
dc.description.isOpenAccessY-
dc.type.journalArticleArticle-
dc.subject.keywordAuthorARIMA Model-
dc.subject.keywordAuthorCost Driver-
dc.subject.keywordAuthorForecasting-
dc.subject.keywordAuthorNuclear Fuel Cycle Cost-
dc.subject.keywordAuthorUranium Price-
dc.subject.keywordPlusSHALE GAS-
dc.subject.keywordPlusFUTURE-
dc.subject.keywordPlusARIMA-
dc.subject.keywordPlusCHINA-
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