In the current paper, an analytical model that can predict the occurrence of plastic shrinkage cracking in concrete slabs is introduced based on the balance between bleed water and bleed water evaporation. To estimate the rate and amount of bleeding in concrete slabs, the consolidation model proposed is used after comparing the analytical results with the experimental results. In the presented model, the effect of temperature variation caused by the hydration heat of the concrete matrix is taken into consideration when estimating the evaporation rate of the bleed water. Then, the time at which the concrete surface begins to dry, which is closely related to the time at which plastic shrinkage cracking begins to occur, can be estimated using the two analytical models mentioned above. Through correlation studies between experimental data and analytical results, it is verified that the proposed model can predict the occurrence of plastic shrinkage cracking with relative precision.