Simulation-based analyses of an evacuation from a metropolis during a bombardment

Abstract

The bombardment of a metropolis is considered a nightmare scenario. To reduce losses from such an assault, big cities have developed evacuation policies in case of bombardment. However, to build efficient evacuation policies, much footing data is required that considers both military and civilian views. Agent-based modeling and simulation could be utilized as a method to obtain the footing data. In this paper, we develop an evacuation agent-based model that describes a massive evacuation through the road network of a metropolis during a bombardment. In particular, our model took account of bombing strategies (i.e. the military view) as well as the characteristics of roads and evacuation agents (i.e. the civilian view) in order to analyze evacuations from both military and civilian perspectives. Moreover, we applied real data from a target region to calibrate parameters and initial conditions of the evacuation agent-based models, which increased the reliability of simulation results. Using the evacuation agent-based model, we designed and performed virtual experiments with varying military and civilian factors. Through the various analyses on the experiment results, we showed that our model could be a framework that provides footing data to develop efficient evacuation policies and preparations.