A study on variation of geometric recourse model by considering route change under weather uncertainty

Abstract

To minimize the weather delay cost, many researchers developed the cost optimization models based on deterministic and stochastic constraint scenarios. Unlike the previous methodologies, Yoon (2010) and Yoon et al. (2012) proposed a geometric model based on the stochastic weather information, it is termed as Geometric Recourse Model (GRM). In the GRM, the optimal solution minimizing the expected total flight cost is considered as a linear flight path under the weather uncertainty. However, since the operational trajectory is formed by the curvilinear path in reality, it is obvious that the ideal method for minimizing the weather risk is to consider the route choice as the curvilinear flight path rather than the linear route from the perspective of practical applications. But it is not tractable to model the curvilinear route choice since the incredibly complex settings are needed to be considered. Instead, this research, as the cornerstone of the curvilinear optimization model, is to take into consideration a piecewise linear route in order to enhance the operational feasibility under the weather uncertainty based on the GRM. This research studies a variation of the Geometric Recourse Model (GRM) with curvilinear route option, where curved path is approximated with piecewise routes. The modified GRM by considering route change before an aircraft reaches weather region is proposed, it is termed as Piecewise-Geometric Recourse Model (P-GRM). In the P-GRM, a turning point that represents a decision point to reroute towards the storm tip to mitigate risks in the presence of storm is introduced. As the result of the study, the P-GRM shows that the problem for an unplanned rerouting under the persistence scenario is reduced, particularly when the turning point is far away from the origin. It suggests that there is a plausible possibility to further improve the GRM in terms of the persistence risk.