Driving forces for resuming a nuclear program after disaster? Implications for the nuclear industry post-Fukushima

Abstract

Our research aims to find the driving forces for resuming a nuclear program even after a nuclear disaster, and to predict decisions on resuming nuclear programs among 29 countries post-Fukushima based on an empirical test in the Chernobyl case. Especially, we focus on the determinants of resuming nuclear programs from the perspective of energy demand and security. Based on our empirical result, we build up an assessment framework to evaluate for the resumption of nuclear programs post-Fukushima, i.e., we identify 5 types of countries depending on their willingness to resume a nuclear program post-Fukushima. Our study aims to help policy makers to better understand the changes in the global nuclear industry and develop country-specific energy plans in this post-Fukushima era, in the sense that they can predict the extent to which each country is likely to stay with current nuclear policies, and such country-specific decisions will greatly influence other nations’ current energy mix as well as future energy plans.