PERT 공식의 이론적 근거와 새로운 추정 방법

Abstract

PERT formulae for the mean and variance of activity time are near exact only over a short interval of the concentration parameter which is defined as the sum of the two shape parameters of the beta distribution. Aiming a better estimation of the mean and variance of activity time, we propose a metho of subjectively estimating this concentration parameter via estimating the probability of completing the activity within a specified time interval.