Model-based calculations of the probability of a country's nuclear proliferation decisions

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This paper presents an attempt to project a country's nuclear proliferation-related behaviors by using quantitative models with the use of open source information. The approach is based on the combined use of data on a country's economic status, security environment, political development, nuclear technological capability, and commitment to nuclear nonproliferation. Projections of country's proliferation-related behaviors were made by using the multinomial logit regression and the Weibull and Cox event history modeling for 189 countries. Results from the developed models were compared with the historical records from 1945 through 2000 with respect to "explore", "pursue", and "acquire" decisions. Overall, this study indicated that quantitative models could be useful in providing warnings against potential nuclear proliferation attempts. Key variables of importance in quantitative modeling of proliferation-related behaviors were identified and discussed. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Publisher
PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
Issue Date
2010-11
Language
English
Article Type
Review
Keywords

WEAPONS

Citation

PROGRESS IN NUCLEAR ENERGY, v.52, no.8, pp.789 - 808

ISSN
0149-1970
DOI
10.1016/j.pnucene.2010.07.001
URI
http://hdl.handle.net/10203/103289
Appears in Collection
NE-Journal Papers(저널논문)
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