Uncertainty Analysis in Dupic Fuel-Cycle Cost Using a Probabilistic Simulation Method

Abstract

A simulation technique has been applied for evaluation of the Direct Use of Pressurized water reactor (PWR) spent fuel In Canada deuterium uranium (CANDU) reactors (DUPIC) fuel-cycle cost incorporating uncertainty terms that have often been a controversial factor in economic analyses. With a view to look at actual scenarios, the present and future Korean nuclear grids with both PWRs and CANDUs, were assumed. The resulting values were compared with such conventional options as reprocessing with mixed-oxide fuel to recycle, as well as direct disposal. The results of the probabilistic analysis indicate that the DUPIC fuel cycle could be an option competitive with direct disposal and superior to the reprocessing option. The cost difference between direct disposal and DUPIC options, although dependent on assumed scenarios of nuclear grids, was very small.