A MONTE-CARLO SIMULATION ALGORITHM FOR FINDING MTBF

Abstract

Prediction of mean time between failures (MTBF) is an important aspect of the initial stage of system development. However, it is often difficult to predict system MTBF during a given time since the component failure processes are extremely complex. This paper presents a Monte Carlo simulation algorithm to calculate the MTBF during a given time of a binary coherent system. The algorithm requires the lifetime distributions of the components and the minimal path sets of the system. The MTBF for a specific time interval, eg, a month or a year, can be estimated. If the component lifetime distributions are unknown, then a lower bound of system MTBF can be estimated by using known constant failure rates for each component.