(A) dynamic procedure for detecting and preventing defection based on SOM and a markov chain = SOM과 마코브 체인을 이용한 고객 이탈 탐지 및 방지를 위한 동적 절차

Customer retention is a common concern for many industries and a critical issue for the survival in today’s greatly compressed marketplace. Current customer retention models with data mining techniques only focus on detection of potential defectors based on the likelihood of defection by using demographic and customer profile information. In this paper, we propose a dynamic procedure for detecting and preventing defection using past and current customer behavior by utilizing SOM and Markov chain. The basic idea originates from the observation that a customer has a tendency to change his behavior (i.e. trim-out his usage volumes) before his eventual withdrawal. This gradual pulling out process offers the company the opportunity to detect the defection signals. With this approach, we have two significant benefits compared with existing studies for detecting defection which are based on the likelihood of defection. First, this suggested procedure can predict when the potential defectors could withdraw and this feature helps to give marketing managers the information of lead-time for preparing defection prevention plans. The second benefit is that our approach can provide a procedure for not only detecting but also preventing defection, which could suggest the desirable behavior state for the next period so as to lower the likelihood of defection. We applied our dynamic procedure for detecting and preventing defection to the online gaming industry. And we compared the prediction accuracy of the proposed procedure to that of the MLP neural network and a decision tree model. This suggested procedure could predict potential defectors and provide the important information of lead-time without deterioration of prediction accuracy compared to that of MLP neural network and a decision tree.
Advisors
Kim, Soung-Hieresearcher김성희researcher
Publisher
한국과학기술원
Issue Date
2004
Identifier
238545/325007  / 020023113
Language
eng
Description

학위논문(석사) - 한국과학기술원 : 경영공학전공, 2004.2, [ vi, 66 p. ]

Keywords

CUSTOMER RETENTION; DEFECTION PREVENTION; DEFECTION DETECTION; SOM; 데이타 마이닝; 마코브 체인; SOM; 고객 이탈 탐지 및 방지; A MARKOV CHAIN

URI
http://hdl.handle.net/10203/52443
Link
http://library.kaist.ac.kr/search/detail/view.do?bibCtrlNo=238545&flag=t
Appears in Collection
KGSM-Theses_Master(석사논문)
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