A qualitative cross-impact approach to find the key technology

This article presents a qualitative analysis method based on fuzzy relations for a cross-impact model designed for a technology impact assessment. The cross-impact knowledge is often uncertain or fuzzy when dealing with future events. Assessing the cross-impact relationships among future technologies creates a more uncertain or fuzzy situation because of the time and the uncertainty involved in evaluating future technologies. In addition, experts prefer to use Linguistic terms or fuzzy values in their predictions. Thus a cross-impact matrix is represented as fuzzy relations on causal concepts. We therefore develop inference algorithms based on fuzzy relations and show a simple technology assessment example to illustrate this approach. This approach is useful in finding the key technology because it considers not only the direct impact but also the indirect impact. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Inc.
Publisher
ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC
Issue Date
1997-07
Language
ENG
Keywords

SYSTEM

Citation

TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE, v.55, no.3, pp.203 - 214

ISSN
0040-1625
URI
http://hdl.handle.net/10203/4658
Appears in Collection
KSIM-Journal Papers(저널논문)
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