Mission effectiveness analysis of a class of combined systems of remotely-piloted vehicle and battery

Abstract

This thesis considers a class of combined systems composed of remotely-piloted vehicle (RPV) and battery against passive enemy targets, where the target, if not killed, is allowed to change its location after each attack from the battery. The RPV has the duty to report on target acquisition, to confirm target kill, and to pass information on any change in target location after each battery attack. The battery has the duty to attack the target on the basis of the target location information provided to it by the RPV. The associated specific problem to be considered first in this thesis is to model the combined system composed of multiple RPV``s and a battery against a moving target. Secondly, the first problem is extended to model the system against multiple targets. For the two modeling systems, the time-dependent state probabilities of the system are derived in closed-form expressions. The state probabilities are then used to compute several important combat measures of effectiveness including (a) the time-varying mean and variance of the number of RPV``s being alive and of the surviving enemy targets, (b) the mission success, mission failure, and combat draw probabilities, (c) the mean and variance of the combat duration time, and (d) the mean time of the target being alive given that it was killed. Illustrative numerical examples are solved for these combat measures. Finally, an RPV sortie model in a combined system composed of an RPV and a battery against an enemy target is considered. The measures of effectiveness considered in the model include (a) the probability of sortie success and failure, (b) the probability of mission success and failure, (c) the expected number of attacks, (d) the expected number of targets killed, and (e) the expected combat duration. The cost-related measures of effectiveness are also considered for determining the optimal RPV sortie time of the combined system.