Scenario analysis for estimating the learning rate of photovoltaic power generation based on learning curve theory in South Korea

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South Korea, as the 9th largest energy consuming in 2013 and the 7th largest greenhouse gas emitting country in 2011, established 'Low Carbon Green Growth' as the national vision in 2008, and is announcing various active energy policies that are set to gain the attention of the world. In this paper, we estimated the decrease of photovoltaic power generation cost in Korea based on the learning curve theory. Photovoltaic energy is one of the leading renewable energy sources, and countries all over the world are currently expanding RD, demonstration and deployment of photovoltaic technology. In order to estimate the learning rate of photovoltaic energy in Korea, both conventional 1FLC (one-factor learning curve), which considers only the cumulative power generation, and 2FLC, which also considers RD investment were applied. The 1FLC analysis showed that the cost of power generation decreased by 3.1% as the cumulative power generation doubled. The 2FCL analysis presented that the cost decreases by 2.33% every time the cumulative photovoltaic power generation is doubled and by 5.13% every time RD investment is doubled. Moreover, the effect of RD investment on photovoltaic technology took after around 3 years, and the depreciation rate of RD investment was around 20%.
Publisher
PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
Issue Date
2015-01
Language
English
Article Type
Article
Keywords

RESEARCH-AND-DEVELOPMENT; RENEWABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES; EXPERIENCE CURVES; TECHNICAL CHANGE; WIND POWER; COST; MODELS; POLICY; INNOVATION; SYSTEMS

Citation

ENERGY, v.79, pp.80 - 89

ISSN
0360-5442
DOI
10.1016/j.energy.2014.10.050
URI
http://hdl.handle.net/10203/251197
Appears in Collection
MG-Journal Papers(저널논문)
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