Statistical model for forecasting uranium prices to estimate the nuclear fuel cycle cost

Cited 2 time in webofscience Cited 0 time in scopus
  • Hit : 256
  • Download : 299
This paper presents a method for forecasting future uranium prices that is used as input data to calculatethe uranium cost, which is a rational key cost driver of the nuclear fuel cycle cost. In other words, thestatistical autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and existing engineering costestimation method, the so-called escalation rate model, were subjected to a comparative analysis. Whenthe uranium price was forecasted in 2015, the margin of error of the ARIMA model forecasting wascalculated and found to be 5.4%, whereas the escalation rate model was found to have a margin of errorof 7.32%. Thus, it was verified that the ARIMA model is more suitable than the escalation rate model atdecreasing uncertainty in nuclear fuel cycle cost calculation.
Publisher
KOREAN NUCLEAR SOC
Issue Date
2017-08
Language
English
Article Type
Article
Keywords

SHALE GAS; FUTURE; ARIMA; CHINA

Citation

NUCLEAR ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY, v.49, no.5, pp.1063 - 1070

ISSN
1738-5733
DOI
10.1016/j.net.2017.05.007
URI
http://hdl.handle.net/10203/226464
Appears in Collection
MG-Journal Papers(저널논문)
Files in This Item
101233.pdf(949.54 kB)Download
This item is cited by other documents in WoS
⊙ Detail Information in WoSⓡ Click to see webofscience_button
⊙ Cited 2 items in WoS Click to see citing articles in records_button

qr_code

  • mendeley

    citeulike


rss_1.0 rss_2.0 atom_1.0