Development of combat effectiveness metric using network representation of combat environment

Abstract

however, it is difficult to develop logical insight and principles that can explain the appearance of the data. On the other hand, an analytic metric defines a functional relation between control variables and combat outputs. Therefore, an analytic metric can provide a transparent understanding as to how changes in control variables are related to outputs by functional relation. In this dissertation, we followed analytical approach to measure combat effectiveness. In chapter 2, as the first step for developing an analytical metric, identifying combat factors for the metric and representing the factors are described. In general sequence to develop analytical metric, combat modeling which encompass combat factors and represent the factor in a certain form should precede others. We identify combat entities relevant to interested combat effectiveness-the number of enemy casualty and the entities and their relations define in a network representation. In chapter 3, we propose an analytical metric in instances of battle at the engagement level. Further, all combatants in the battle have the same mission-kill all enemies. With the number of enemy casualties as the desired measure of combat effectiveness, we propose that the prevalence of attack opportunities is proportional to the number of enemy casualties. To calculating the prevalence, two attack opportunity models and the network motif concept are applied to develop the logic of the framework for measuring combat effectiveness. In chapter 4, we enhance the metric proposed in chapter 3 in an awareness of that local combat effectiveness is important. Overall magnitude of combat effectiveness cannot distinguish specific combats in regions. To solve the problem, we propose that a map form is a useful way to visually measuring local combat effectiveness. To develop the map form metric, the attack opportunities model is edited and a method of constructing the map form is designed. In chapter 5, application of the map form is examined. The map format has an advantage to show local combat effectiveness of deployments. Therefore, we determine to utilize the map form in assessments for deployment to keep the operational principles for defense. We develop the indexes for the principles which is composed of a measurement and an area of interest. The indexes are validated in the experiments of the simulation which depicts a generic defense scenario for a battalion and by user research surveying commander's understanding on the principles. A new analytical approach of measuring combat effectiveness is developed in Chapter 2 through 5. In contrast with the previous analytical metrics and equations, this approach has the goal of including various factors in the combat environment relevant to combat effectiveness. Generally, the more factors used to measure combat effectiveness, the more difficult it is likely to be to find the relations between the factors. To solve this problem, we try to construct the logic based on the meaning of the network structure.

This dissertation describes an overall process of constructing an analytical metric for measuring combat effectiveness. Combat effectiveness can be conceptually defined as the overall capability of a military force to produce the desired outcome from combat against an enemy force. Measuring combat effectiveness can reduce uncertainty in the combat environment, and it contributes successful decision making in combat. Combat effectiveness depends on many factors other than firepower (e.g., doctrines and tactics, logistics, information, knowledge, etc.). It is particularly difficult to measure combat effectiveness in the modern warfare paradigm of network centric warfare(NCW). In an NCW environment, the overall capability of a military force is more than the simple sum of the capabilities of the individual components and the force’s abilities. Therefore, to measure precise combat effectiveness, many factors which influence on the effectiveness should be identified, and their relations should be considered to find a complex function of combat effectiveness. There have been many efforts to measuring the effectiveness of military systems and the efforts are widely divided into two approaches: simulation and analytical metric. Simulations can generate empirical data from various designed situations