(The) analysis of high-level education effect as locomotive to escape the middle-income trap and its futurological assessment for sustainable growth = 중진국 탈출과 미래 경제성장 핵심동인으로써 고등교육 역할 분석

We study the role of educational level and the quality of education on economic transition from middle-income to high-income stage. For this, we classify target countries into 3 groups with economic growth rate from 1960 to 2010. We introduce difference-in-difference estimator as a regressor and the 1st order differential model to extract role of educational level in transition from middle-income to high-income level. The results suggest the tertiary education has more impact on escaping the middle-income trap. Also the quality of education is estimated to interpret why some countries fail to reach high-income level even though their high educational attainment rate. We find they have weak link between the educational attainment ratio and the change rate of industrial structure from agriculture to manufacture, which was the prime engine for the modern economic growth. In futurological assessment, we introduce colored 3-dimensional foresight method to extract key drivers for sustained economic growth in future. And 2 variables are decided as key driver for future economic drivers and scenario analysis based on $2 \times 2$ partitioning method is performed. The results suggest blind increase of high-level educational attainment ratio in population could have negative impact on economic growth for countries like South Korea. Hence it is proposed the demand from industrial sector to be considered in educational policy for the sustained growth because correlation between educational system and industrial sector can represent the status of economic growth.
Advisors
Lee, Kwang Hyungresearcher이광형researcherKim, Wonjoonresearcher김원준researcher
Publisher
한국과학기술원
Issue Date
2016
Identifier
325007
Language
eng
Description

학위논문(석사) - 한국과학기술원 : 미래전략대학원프로그램, 2016.8 ,[iii, 54 p. :]

Keywords

Middle-income trap; Economic growth; Educational attainment; Educational quality; Industrial structure; 3-dimensional foresight method; 중진국 함정; 경제성장; 교육 성취율; 교육의 질; 산업구조; 3차원 미래예측 방법

URI
http://hdl.handle.net/10203/221399
Link
http://library.kaist.ac.kr/search/detail/view.do?bibCtrlNo=663346&flag=t
Appears in Collection
GFS-Theses_Master(석사논문)
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