Dynamic project performance estimation by combining static estimation models with system dynamics

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Changes in user requirements or project personnel occur frequently during project execution particularly in long-term and large-size projects. We need a tool which can estimate the effects of changing conditions to effectively manage the project. This paper proposes a simulation method for dynamic project performance in terms of effort, schedule, and defect density changes in a dynamic project environment by combining COCOMO II with system dynamics. We apply expert judgment technique to overcome the lack of empirical data on the effects of dynamic project environment. We develop a simulation tool (available on the authors' website) which has model adjustment parameters to reflect experts estimation on project characteristics. The simulation experiment on a military application development project demonstrates that the developed model can show the behavioral characteristics of a project suffering unanticipated and uncontrolled requirements creep. This helps project managers understand interactions between project factors and proactively evaluate and control the effects of dynamic project environment. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Publisher
ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
Issue Date
2009-01
Language
ENG
Article Type
Article
Keywords

SOFTWARE PROCESS SIMULATION; MANAGEMENT; IMPACT

Citation

INFORMATION AND SOFTWARE TECHNOLOGY, v.51, no.1, pp.162 - 172

ISSN
0950-5849
DOI
10.1016/j.infsof.2008.03.001
URI
http://hdl.handle.net/10203/12546
Appears in Collection
CS-Journal Papers(저널논문)
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