The environment of the access network service market is characterized by uncertain demand and various competing alternative technologies. In Korea, despite the introduction of competition, dominant Public Network Operater(PNO) still leads the market. Therefore, the decision of PNO has a great impact on the access network evolution. In this paper, we propose an model which aims to reduce risks and both investment and operating costs, to cope with the uncertain demand and provide a tool to analyze risks and evaluate various strategies on the access network evolution.